Juwai unveils Q1 2016 Global Property Index (GPI) Report

Tuesday, June 28th, 2016

Q1 2016 saw housing prices rise in 31 ? out of 45 ? housing markets in the world


Which country reigns as the strongest housing markets right now? We analyse the latest GPI Report using inflation-adjusted figures, and shed light on which housing markets went up or down in the first quarter of the year.

According to the latest GPI Report, housing prices worldwide are still heating up, with most of Europe and North America spearheading the global housing boom, while Asia, Middle East, and Oceania markets are experiencing a slowdown.

Home to six out of the ten strongest housing markets, Europe retains its dominance with 18 out of 22 housing markets charting housing price increase.

Turkey leads the pack as the strongest performer this quarter, thanks to strong foreign investment and growing population that has surged despite its currency woes and border turmoil with Syria and Kurdish Iraq.

In North America, both the US and Canadian markets are rallying from strength to strength as real estate demand remains robust in both countries. Over at the Pacific Ocean though, the Australian and New Zealand markets are slowing down.

Meanwhile, housing markets in the Middle East and most of Asia – save for China, Japan, and the Philippines – charted weak performances of minimal growth or market deceleration.

European markets trailblazing ahead

  • Turkish housing prices skyrocketed at 19.05% – clocking a y-o-y growth of 11.61% and q-o-q increase of 4.99%.
  • Sweden surged an impressive 12.10% – housing prices rose due to strong economic growth, shortage of housing supply, and the negative interest rates of its central bank.
  • Romanian market sustained strong growth of 11.55% – motivating factors include its robust economic growth combined with the government’s focus on rebuilding public trust.
  • Ireland remains robust with a 7.74% increase – this sustainable, albeit slower-paced, rise is thanks to its healthy economic growth rate, which is currently ranked first in the EU.
  • Germany’s housing market rose 6.25%  – strong economic fundamentals and housing supply shortages are behind this healthy boost in property prices.
  • Other European countries showing strong performances – the Netherlands (+6.09%), Iceland (+5.10%), the UK (+4.78%), Lithuania (+3.56%), Macedonia (+3.29%), and Portugal (+3.18%).


European markets undergoing feeble growth or decline

  • Russia struggles as weakest housing market – plagued by an economic crisis due to falling oil prices, currency woes, and international economic sanctions, Russian housing prices plunged -13.04% y-o-y, and this is following last year’s decline of -9.65%.
  • Greece housing market remains stagnant – battling social unrest and its continued economic crisis, property prices slid -4.39% y-o-y before charting a slight q-o-q growth of 1.71% in Q1 2016.
  • Ukraine shows marked improvement – having concluded its conflict with Russia, although housing prices in Kiev dropped -2.97% y-o-y, it was a dramatic development from its -36.52% decline the year before.
  • Montenegro property prices tumble once more – following a 6.91% growth last quarter, housing prices dropped -1.06% y-o-y.


North American markets riding a healthy momentum

  • US real estate market stays robust despite economic slowdown – S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally adjusted national home pricing grew 4.29%, driven by strong housing demand and lower mortgage interest rates.
  • Canadian market strengthens despite repeated cooling measures – housing prices in 11 major cities still grew 5.67% y-o-y, which was higher than the 3.57% charted last year, and is the biggest annual increase since Q2 2010.


Pacific Ocean/Oceania markets slowing down

  • Australian housing prices decelerate – while property prices rose 6.80% y-o-y, housing prices in its eight major cities grew at an increasingly slower pace.
  • New Zealand housing market slows sharply – bogged down by a weakening economic growth, nationwide median housing prices grew a mere 3.63% y-o-y, compared to the 7.85% growth charted last year.


Middle East markets languishing

  • Qatar housing market flags – while still retaining its presence as the fifth strongest housing market in the world, Qatar housing prices only grew 9.27% y-o-y, a dramatic decline from the 27.81% increase the year before.
  • Israeli property market wanes – dragged down by an economic downturn and dwindling housing demand, its nationwide average housing prices only rose 4.52% y-o-y, compared to 8.5% the previous year.
  • Dubai housing market slump continues – lower oil prices, an economic slowdown, and ebbing investor confidence have seen property prices plunging -9.26% y-o-y, a performance worse than the -2.72% recorded in Q1 2015.
  • Egypt market stays sluggish – an economic slowdown projected this year and weakening tourism sector has seen its nationwide average housing prices drop -9.49% y-o-y, a stark contrast to 2.07% growth charted the year before. 


Asian markets delivering robust results

  • Japan housing market upswing continues – despite a weak economy, housing prices grew 5.50% y-o-y thanks to strong housing demand and the appreciation of the Japanese Yen.
  • Philippine market charts healthy growth – housing prices in the Makati CBD grew 3.9% y-o-y, thanks to rapid economic growth and a robust economic growth rate projected for 2016 (6%) and 2017 (6.2%).
  • Other Asian countries showing modest growth – Vietnam (+1.93%), South Korea (+1.81%), and Thailand (+0.42%).


Asian markets weakening further

  • Mongolia the weakest Asian housing market – a serious economic recession sees its housing market tumbling down -11.93% y-o-y.
  • Hong Kong market slips into surprise decline – waning tourist arrivals and retail sales has led to a subdued economy, prompting property prices to fall -9.91% y-o-y, which is a drastic contrast from the 14.62% growth marked the year before.
  • Singaporean market continues its slump – the combination of a economy downturn, weak housing demand, and the government’s continued cooling measures has seen it deliver its eleventh consecutive quarterly decline in housing price of -2.35%.
  • Indonesia property market drops slightly – housing prices fell -0.16% y-o-y, however, the government has unveiled a plan enabling foreigners to invest in luxury property in Indonesia, which may prove a boon.


Other housing markets of note

  • South Africa’s housing market declines – the depreciation of the rand, coupled with its economic uncertainty amidst softening foreign investor sentiments led to medium-sized apartment price index dropping -1.3%, compared to the increase of 1.52% in Q1 2015.
  • Brazilian market depression continues – its prolonged political crisis and economic recession has resulted in a deteriorating housing market where property prices plunged -7.59% in its sixth consecutive quarterly decline.
  • Mexican housing market strengthens – Brazils market slump is a boost for Mexico, whose housing prices grew 5.26% y-o-y, thanks to its eye-catching economic performance and a rise in foreign property buyers.

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