Vancouver Real Estate Prices Set to Stall Says Analyst Jurock

Thursday, December 22nd, 2011

Glen Korstrom

Real estate outside Metro Vancouver has a better chance of rising than in B.C.’s metropolis, according to real estate investor, blogger and consultant Ozzie Jurock.

“I’m not negative on Vancouver, please,” Jurock told Business in Vancouver. “But I don’t think we’re going to have a continuation of the kinds of price increases that we’ve had.”

He said price increases during the past full year mask price drops since May. Higher prices for single-family homes also mask drops in the overall value of condominiums.

“If you look at Vancouver prices since May, you see a price decline in some areas of 15%,” Jurock said. “Condos in West Vancouver are down 20% since May even though single family homes are 17% higher.”

Jurock explained the disparity as a result of speculation from Chinese investors who prefer single-family homes.

“We’re going to move sideways to down [on prices]. People believe that there’s no speculation in the market and that it’s all migration. I’m not of that view.”

Cheap property in U.S. sand states such as Las Vegas and Arizona is attracting a lot of potential real estate money from Albertans, who otherwise would have been more willing to invest in the B.C. Interior or on Vancouver Island.

“I don’t think it will be a great year, next year,” he said. “In Vancouver, you buy a $1.5 million property on a 33-foot lot on the west side and people expect its value to rise to $2.5 million. In Phoenix, that lot is worth $25,000 and people expect it to go to $10,000. Neither one is going to happen.”

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