Genworth Financial Canada also says pace of increases will slow
MICHAEL KANE
Sun
The average price of new housing, whether single detached or multi- family, will cross the $ 700,000 threshold next year in Greater Vancouver, and the following year for the rest of British Columbia, a study shows.
By 2011, new housing in the Vancouver region will be nudging $ 800,000 on average. Across B. C. it is expected to top $ 760,000.
However, that still spells relief from the red- hot pace of price increases over the past three years, according to Genworth Financial Canada, a mortgage insurance company.
Over the next four years Genworth anticipates the pace of price increases for new homes will slow to about 4. 3 per cent annually in Greater Vancouver and 4.1 per cent annually elsewhere in B. C.
Over the same period resale price increases will average 6.6 per cent in Greater Vancouver and 6.2 per cent in the rest of the province.
The relief for prospective buyers comes from comparing these increases to last year’s sizzling 20- per- cent surge in resale home prices in Greater Vancouver and 17.8 per cent elsewhere in B. C.
“ We’re seeing what looks like more manageable growth over the next half- decade in what is still a great housing market,” Genworth president Peter Vukanovich said in a release.
The Summer 2007 Metropolitan Housing Outlook forecasts slightly slower demand will reduce this year’s rate of price increases in B. C. to 5.9 per cent for new homes, to an average price of $ 648,150. Resale homes in B. C. are forecast to increase 9.2 per cent to an average $ 426,558.
In Greater Vancouver, new home prices are expected to rise by seven per cent this year to an average of $ 673,706, compared to a 6.9- per- cent average hike last year. Growth in resale Vancouver home prices is forecast at 11.7 per cent this year to $ 569,689.
Looking ahead, the study says new housing prices in Greater Vancouver will average $ 708,759 next year, climbing to $ 739,980 in 2009, $ 768,732 in 2010, and $ 795,608 in 2011.
Resale prices in Greater Vancouver are forecast to average $ 623,927 next year, $ 668,632 in 2009, $ 705,057 in 2010, and $ 733,932 in 2011.
Across British Columbia, new housing will average $ 678,822 next year, $ 707,898 in 2009, $ 735,198 in 2010, and $ 761,045 in 2011, while resale prices will average $ 463,379 next year, $ 494,254 in 2009, $ 519,999 in 2010, and $ 541,297 in 2011.
In Victoria, new home prices will be virtually flat this year, rising only 1.2 per cent to an average $ 470,717, the study says.
Victoria saw big new home price increases of 9.1 per cent in 2004 and 7.9 per cent in 2005, cooling to 3.8 per cent last year. Genworth says the market looks steady and strong through 2011 with price increases averaging four per cent annually.
Victoria’s resale market continues to grow, with prices forecast to increase 8.1 per cent this year to an average $ 461,119. That’s down from price jumps of 11.6 per cent last year, 17.2 per cent in 2005 and 16.2 per cent in 2004.
Genworth says Victoria resale home price increases will average 5.6 per cent annually through 2011.
The Metropolitan Housing Outlook, published Thursday, is conducted in partnership with the Conference Board of Canada and based on data from a number of sources including the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Real Estate Association and Statistics Canada.