Markets take a downturn


Saturday, December 4th, 2004

HOUSING TRENDS I While average price increased, sales declined for fourth consecutive month

Petti Fong
Sun

 

Real estate sales plummet
Detached-home sales volume plunged in November compared to the same time last year in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley
 

Real-estate sales plummeted in the Lower Mainland last month with sales falling 20 per cent in Greater Vancouver and 25 per cent in the Fraser Valley.

It was the fourth straight month of decline in the housing market. While the average price increased, there were declines in sales in most areas.

Detached-home sales fell by 20.2 per cent in Greater Vancouver, while in the Fraser Valley they dropped by 25 per cent.

According to Multiple Listings Service data, apartment sales fell 17.4 per cent and attached property sales fell 10.9 per cent in Greater Vancouver compared to a year ago.

In the Fraser Valley, sales of residential properties were down 15 per cent overall.

Representatives from both the Fraser Valley and Greater Vancouver real-estate boards said despite the declines, sales remain strong compared to a record pace set last year.

Real-estate sales continue to be one of the key drivers in the provincial economy, according to Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver president Andrew Peck.

Sales volume has “trickled down” every month for the last four months, said Fraser Valley Real Estate Board president Moss Moloney on Friday.

“But the price of real estate hasn’t dropped,” he said. “It’s a better opportunity now for buyers, and sellers are still getting good dollars for their listings.”

Sally Broadbent, both a seller and a buyer, dropped out of the market in the spring, when buying was too frenzied.

The East Vancouver resident said she looked in April and May when the market was at its peak.

“The prices were really high and nothing we were interested in was coming on the market,” Broadbent said Friday.

“We started looking again in October and the difference was huge. We had more time. There was not the same urgency to buy or lose out.”

Broadbent said if she had sold her East Vancouver home in April, she probably would have received $20,000 more than the eventual selling price she got in October. In North Vancouver, where the family is moving, the house purchased came down by $10,000 from its asking price.

Lorne Goldman, the Broadbent family’s realtor, said Friday the current market remains strong.

“The spring conditions were unsustainable,” Goldman said of the frantic buying sprees earlier this year when property sales shattered records. “In one case, I had 17 offers on one listing. That level of activity cannot continue.”

In Fraser Valley, which includes Surrey, White Rock and North Delta, unit sales went from 769 sold in November 2003 to 612 sold last month, a 25-per-cent drop.

Average prices for single family homes in the Fraser Valley, at $351,996, were up 10.1 per cent over the year, and declined two per cent from October.

In Greater Vancouver, a typical detached home was $489,430, down from the three month average of $498,903, but up 8.9 per cent from the year before.

Independent mortgage broker Linda Wickstrom said housing prices aren’t dropping, but reflect a more realistic portrait of what buyers and sellers can afford.

“It’s more back to the level of a real market and that makes everyone much more comfortable,” she said Friday.

Five-year fixed mortgage rates remain steady at 4.84 per cent, similar to the rates buyers could get earlier this year for the same term.

Market analyst Robyn Adamche, with Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation, said buyers are no longer in the market just because interest rates are near historic lows.

“While mortgage is still a factor, they are starting to creep up. It remains an important driver, but it’s not the only driver now,” she said.

Since the beginning of the year, Adamche said the economy improved, more people moved to B.C. and the employment picture stabilized.

“That’s all contributing to a more stable growth in the market based on basic fundamentals. We’re seeing a much more sustainable growth.”

CMHC considers a market to be balanced when 18 to 22 per cent of all listings are sold in a month.

While exact numbers are not made public, Adamche said the ratio in October, the last month calculated, was near the high end of a balanced market.

In contrast, when the market was at its most frenzied in March, that ratio was 54 per cent.

For the end of the year, CMHC calculates total sales will be down one per cent overall from the historic 13-per-cent increase in 2003.

Prices will increase on average for this year by 17 per cent for detached homes in Greater Vancouver and 15 per cent for apartments and townhouses, Adamche said.

© The Vancouver Sun 2004



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