Record prices across Canada predicted with Vancouver in lead
Wyng Chow
Sun
With Greater Vancouver leading the country, average housing prices are expected to hit record levels in 17 major Canadian markets by year end and continue their climb through next year, according to an annual report released Monday by Re/Max.
In its latest market outlook, the national real estate organization predicts the average price for a home in Greater Vancouver — already the highest in Canada — to reach $330,000 this year, surpassing the previous record of $308,000 set in 1995.
For 2004, Re/Max forecasts a further five per cent increase to $346,000.
Multiple Listing Service figures show that as of the end of September, the year-to-date average price for a residence in all housing categories in Greater Vancouver stood at $324,400, up 7.6 per cent from $301,600 in 2002.
Meanwhile, the number of units sold through the first nine months totalled 29,522, an improvement of 9.5 per cent over 26,956 units the previous year.
(In Greater Vancouver, residential properties include detached houses, townhomes, condominium apartments, multi-family revenue homes, and building lots.)
Re/Max, which lists or sells about one out of every three homes across Canada and enjoys the largest single market share in the Lower Mainland, predicts total MLS unit sales in Greater Vancouver to hit 36,440 by year-end 2003, compared to 34,909 actual transactions in 2002, and to climb to 37,150 sales in 2004.
“Once again, Canadians have chosen real estate as their investment vehicle of choice,” said Elton Ash, vice-president of Kelowna-based Re/Max of Western Canada.
“Despite coast-to-coast disasters of epic proportions — [ranging] from raging forest fires, mad cow disease and SARS, to an Eastern-seaboard blackout and a hurricane — residential real estate activity continues unabated in virtually every major centre.
“The tremendous strength of the market has taken both industry experts and analysts by surprise.”
As in 2003, Re/Max expects housing sales in 2004 to be bolstered nationwide by low interest rates and continuing job growth.
Nationally, Re/Max estimates the average residential price will reach $203,200 by year end, up eight per cent from 2002’s actual average of $188,100. For 2004, the company forecasts another three per cent rise to $209,300.
For MLS unit sales, Re/Max estimates the national total to hit 433,900 this year, up three per cent from 421,227 actual sales in 2002. No change is anticipated for 2004 over 2003.
Of the 18 major markets surveyed, other Re/Max findings include:
– Following Vancouver, Toronto will rank as Canada’s second most-expensive housing market with a 2003 year-end average price of $291,000, then breaking the $300,000 mark for the first time in 2004.
– Victoria will finish the year at an average residential price of $280,000 — the country’s third highest — up 15.5 per cent from the actual $242,500 in 2002, then rise a further four per cent in 2004 to $291,200.
– Canada’s most affordable markets can be found in Regina, at a year-end average of $103,900, climbing to $107,000 in 2004; Moncton, N.B., ($104,000, inching up to $107,650); Saint John, N.B., ($104,000, rising to $111,400); and Winnipeg ($107,200, increasing to $112,500).
– Kelowna homes are expected to see a 2003 year-end average of $192,800, up 8.4 per cent from $177,800 last year, then appreciate a further five per cent to $202,400 next year.
“The rebuilding after a significant natural disaster [devastating forest fires] typically brings with it a measurable boost to the local and regional economy,” Re/Max noted in its Kelowna outlook.
“As a result, 2004 will see the Kelowna area experience a mini-economic boom, similar to the situation faced by Quebec and Eastern Canada after the great ice storm of 1998.
“This, in turn, will fuel the underlying market fundamentals needed to sustain the upward trend in [Kelowna‘s] residential real estate market.”
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